Investing in a Volatile Environment

The volatility that we recently experienced in the market is very troubling to some investors. Unfortunately, those investors who hit the panic button and sold off are recognizing large losses in their portfolios only to turn to investments that are perceived as safer places to invest.

The fact of the matter is that we invest our money to earn long-term rates of return that will exceed the rate of inflation and help us preserve our purchasing power. Historically, cash has been the worst place to invest over the long term.

Losing Investment Capital in a Volatile Market
According to Fidelity Investments, investors who sold their 401(k) holdings while the market was crashing between October 2017 and March 2018, and then stayed on the sidelines, have only seen their account values increase by about 2%, including contributions, through June of 2019. This compares with those who held on and saw account balances bounce back by around 50%. During periods of extreme volatility, wealth managers will often tell clients to stay invested rather than sell and lock in large losses in a seesaw market.

Building confidence in your strategy is a way to keep from making the mistake of buying high and selling low. Having the mental conviction to tell yourself that you have a carefully planned portfolio of high quality investments goes a long way toward getting through the toughest days of market volatility. If you are unsure of how to select high quality investments, consult with an financial manager or registered investment advisor.

The question is; how do you reach that state of mind? It’s not easy if you are the type of person that tends to get knots in your stomach when the market drops. We outline some steps below that might be able to increase your level of confidence.

Conquering the Fear of Volatility
One step you should take to better handle volatility is to make sure you have adequate cash reserves for a financial emergency that might arise. This way you are not depending on your portfolio for unforeseen expenses and your anxiety level will be lower, knowing that you don’t need to sell your investments when they have declined in value.

Make sure you have a mix of investments that fits in to your risk tolerance and time frame. This can be accomplished by considering how you have felt when past market declines have occurred. Your wealth management advisor should be able to provide you with a thought provoking questionnaire that will give you a score when completed. The score on the questionnaire will have a corresponding asset allocation that you can use to determine the split you will have between stocks, bonds and cash.

Once your allocation has been determined, stick with it. It is a good practice to reallocate your assets on a regular basis to keep your risk level the same. This means that a portion of those investments with better performance will be sold (sell high) to purchase in order to purchase shares in those that have not performed as well (buy low).

Other ways to hedge volatility can be through the use of options. Two simple strategies can be applied. One is the sale of covered call options against underlying stock or ETF positions. In this strategy you (the seller of the option) collect money from a speculator (the buyer of the option) in exchange for an agreement to sell your stock only if it reaches a specified price (higher than where it trades at the time of the transaction). The option must hit the price target (strike price) within a predetermined time frame (expiration date). If it does not, the contract expires you keep the money paid and are free to sell more options against that stock position.

The other strategy is to simply buy a put option. This gives you the right to sell your position in a stock or ETF that you own at a predetermined price within a predetermined time frame. For this privilege you will pay money (a premium) to the potential buyer (seller of the put option) of your stock. This strategy should be implemented in periods of low volatility, as the cost of the transaction will rise as markets begin to fall.

Buy With Conviction
Let’s say you’ve owned a stock that has done well over time. The stock has had a history of increasing revenue, profits and dividend increases. It seems like the stock is usually going up when the market goes up, only now there has been a big selloff in the market, and the stock has dropped dramatically due to market conditions. It may be time to do some homework on the company and make sure that the drop is due to just a generally bad market. If it that turns out to be the case, maybe it is time to buy more of the stock. Great companies often go on sale in market declines, only to have dramatic upturns once the market decline is over.

The Importance Of Investing in A Dry Cabinet

If you are having trouble protecting your MSD(moisture sensitive devices) from humidity related damages, you are on the right page. In this article, we are going to shed some lights on the importance of electronic dry cabinets.

Basically, a dry cabinet is an enclosure that can keep electronic components from getting exposed to excessive moisture environment. People use these when they need to put their moisture sensitive products into low humidity environment.

We know that excessive moisture can damage specific products, such as PCB,IC,chips,optical products,precision instruments. Since moisture can have a negative impact on the device performance and cause malfunction in some cases, it’s important to keep them in a place where these problems won’t occur.

Without further ado, let’s find out why you may want to invest in a dry cabinet to meet your needs.

Importance of investing in a Dry Cabinet

Why do professional manufacturers use a dry cabinet to store their MSD? The short answer is, they want protection against fungus. As a matter of fact, fungus is the worst enemy of electronic manufacturing process. It’s not easy to remove fungus and it can also cause damage and great economic loss to the products.

The problem is that fungus and humidity can directly cause damage and cracking inside electronics and other moisture sensitive materials. This can happen if you store the electronics and don’t take any measures to protect it from unwanted stuff, such as fungus and humidity. As soon as fungus grows, you won’t be able to stop it from spreading fast.

If you think you can clean the fungus from PCB boards, you need to think again. The reason is that it can have a damaging effect on the small components on PCB boards and too much works with excessive labor cost,Therefore, we don’t recommend that you go this route.

Often manufactures who have access to dry cabinets end up storing their components in exposed workshops,Typically, fungus tends to thrive in these areas because of high humidity. Generally, these people live in areas where humidity remains high throughout the year.

Keep in mind that these can be a great choice for electronic and semiconductor manufacturers.Make sure that the equipment you have stored is free of dust and water vapor. And this can be done only if you invest in a good dry cabinets. These devices can be configured to control humidity and prevent it from crossing the line.

Bonus Tips:

If you want to store your MSD (moisture sensitive devices) into dry cabinets, make sure you choose an optimal humidity point,don’t keep the humidity level too low or too high.

Dry modules is also very essential,if the dry module lifespan is short,then you have to replace it once two years or three years,it will cause high cost and much time.

Often, it costs a hefty sum of money to get the fungus removed from your MSD. On top of this, the treatment may not be 100% effective. As a result, you may end up with long downtime.

Properly Trading the Soybean Vs Corn Spread

The soybean versus corn spread has received a great deal of justifiable attention this year and the current spread between the two markets is still near its all time highs. The last statement however, generates as many questions as it answers. We’re going to look at some of the difficulties in quantifying this spread trade, place it in its historical context and walk through the math so that the next time someone mentions this, you can determine if they’re comparing current crop soybeans versus corn or, if they might as well be talking about apples and oranges.

Every trade that is made is based on comparing current prices to past prices in order to determine future prices. Day traders may use something as small as a tick chart for scalpers while Warren Buffet probably uses monthly charts to plan generational trades. The problem with commodity futures data is that the contracts expire and depending on the market, there can be a huge gap in prices in the roll over from the expiring contract to the new front month contract. Obviously, corn and beans both fit this description.

For example, September beans are the last of the old crop beans to be traded. Old crop beans are the available supply currently in storage. When this contract expires many traders will begin trading the November contract, which is this year’s bean crop in the ground. The dynamic between these two contracts can be substantially different. Compare this to a currency contract that expires quarterly. There’s no difference between a September Yen and a December Yen. A Yen doesn’t spoil, isn’t affected by drought and won’t catch a disease. Thus the $.50 cent per bushel gap between the September and November bean contracts represents far more factors than the.0008-point spread between the September and December Yen contract which is primarily attributable to the discounted interest rate differential.

Before the historical boundaries of an agricultural market can be determined, the right data must be chosen. There are three types of historical data used by trading packages and data retailers and each has their place. Back adjusted and ratio adjusted contracts use mathematical equations to fill in the roll gaps between contracts. In order to compare current crop soybean and corn spread differentials, only non-adjusted original contracts can be used. This is by far the most cumbersome process but it is the only way to answer the actual question being asked; “How has the current crop corn and bean spread behaved between July 4th and November 4th?” These dates were chosen to be past the spring planting fears while still being relevant to our current situation while the November 4th ending date eliminates any first notice day or delivery issues with the November soybean futures contract.

Once the proper tool (data) has been chosen for the job the proper measurement methodology must be determined. Google returns nearly 2,500,000 results for, “bean to corn ratio.” Clearly, much has been written on this topic. I have a couple of issues with this process. First of all, gong through 30 years’ worth of data yields the following bean to corn ratio results between the first week of July and the first week of November. The average movement in the ratio is.001. Meanwhile, the actual average movement of the underlying contracts is about $.27. Therefore even a negligible change in the ratio reflects an average of $1,350 difference per contract in your trading account. Ratios don’t pay bills, cash differentials do.

Secondly, and perhaps more alarmingly, the negligible difference in the ratio is actually an increase from 2.591 on average in the first week of July to 2.592 on average in the first week of November whereas the average $.27 differential in the outright contracts represents a quantifiable decline in the actual spread prices. Finally, over the last thirty years there have been five times when the ratio has declined while the premium in the spread increased. The bean to corn spread ratio may be useful as a general guideline but has been useless in managing a trading account.

This brings us to the current situation in the soybean versus corn spread. Using non-adjusted contracts and comparing the current setup to both historical averages and extremes, it’s clear that we are sitting at very lofty levels. Both the cash differential at $8.90 and the ratio at 3.17 are at their highest July 4th levels of all time while their historical averages are $4.42 and 2.591 respectively. Meanwhile, in May, we set an all-time high for the outright differential at $10.57 which also shows another bean corn ratio issue as its highest point was 3.62 set in June of 2008. Clearly the cash differential is pricing in the record corn crop at beans’ expense. The average decline in differential for the thirteen years out of the last thirty years in which the spread fell is about $1.20.

The last issues to address in the bean corn spread are contract size, volatility and cash management. The contract sizes of beans and corn at the Chicago Board of Trade are the same – 5,000 bushels. However, due to the much higher price of soybeans, the contract values are clearly different, currently around $54,500 for soybeans versus $18,500 for corn. Capturing the differential movement requires placing the same amount of capital on each side of the trade, not the same number of bushels. The current levels justify 3 contracts of December corn versus 1 contract of November soybeans. This will provide equal leverage on both sides of the long and short ledger. Finally, we come to margins. The CME Group only recognizes this spread on a 1 to 1 basis, which has an initial margin of $2,806. The additional two corn contracts require another $3,300 in initial margin. Thus, the exchanges will require $6,106 in margin to buy 15,000 bushels of corn worth approximately $55,500 and sell 5,000 bushels of soybeans worth about $54,500. And that is how the soybean versus corn spread should be traded.